War over hydro line could solidify McFadyen
Mon Dec 24 2007
Dan Lett

TORY Leader Hugh McFadyen has many good qualities but delayed gratification clearly isn't one of them.

McFadyen couldn't wait until the new year to reveal his resolution for 2008, which is to orchestrate a political holy war against the NDP government for building a new Manitoa Hydro transmission line from northern generating stations down the west side of the province.

Premier Gary Doer chose the western route, which is about 500 kilometres longer and hundreds of millions of dollars more expensive, over a route down the east side of Lake Winnipeg, to preserve pristine boreal forest located there.

McFadyen called Doer's decision the worst policy decision in Manitoba history and announced his intention to spend several months cultivating opposition to the west-side option and make it the biggest issue of the next provincial election.

But is this the issue that will capture the imagination of Manitobans and make McFadyen competitive with Doer?McFadyen is correct when he claims this is an important issue that could have a profound impact on the Crown-owned utility and the province's economy. And yet, there is no clear indication this is an issue that has a broad appeal.

A recent poll by Probe Research for the Free Press indicated that only four in 10 Manitobans have been following the transmission-line debate. Of those who are familiar with the issue, only one-third oppose the west-side route. That is a steep hill to climb.

And while it is unclear Manitobans will mobilize against the west-side option, there is a fair bit of evidence to suggest a good number will mobilize to stop a line down the east side of the lake.

McFadyen believes that environmentalists will be appeased once they see facts on how little environmental impact there would be from this kind of development. His belief is bolstered by hard evidence from engineers and consultants who argue forcefully and convincingly that the west-side option is unjustifiably expensive.

However, some of those same consultants agree with Doer that despite all the hard numbers showing the advantages of an east-side route, environmentalists have little motivation to be rational or reasonable on this issue.

For many environmentalists, Manitoba's great boreal forest is an iconic resource that should be free from any development. McFadyen may see this as a debate about Manitoba and its Crown-owned energy utility, but environmentalists see this as an important stand in a worldwide campaign to save precious natural resources.

As well, McFadyen may have underestimated the fact that environmentalists are generally better-organized, better-funded and more motivated to get out and protest. So far, other than McFadyen, we have yet to identify the anti-west-side/pro-east-side lobby.

As for the timing of McFadyen's holy war, we probably won't know if it was too early to release the hounds until the next election comes into focus. McFadyen is coming off a tough year where he lost his first election as leader and saw his caucus shrink by a seat. He needs something to raise his profile, and there's no reason for him to wait until the NDP decides it's time to go back to the polls.

At first glance, it appears that McFadyen is out there hammering away on an issue the public is generally ignoring, against a better-organized and more-impassioned opposition. But there could be some method to his madness if he attacks the one great flaw in Doer's plan.

The NDP was free to approach the east-side/west-side debate as a purely environmental issue because First Nations communities on the east side were unable to come together on a vision for the transmission line and its environmental and economic consequences. Some wanted a transmission line, but they wanted to own it outright, an option Manitoba Hydro opposed. Others didn't want the line at all.

If McFadyen focuses less on mobilizing the masses, and more on mobilizing specific forces, he could cause Doer some real discomfort. In particular, McFadyen could try to bring together east-side First Nations with a unified proposal for a transmission line. Forging a renewed demand from aboriginal leaders for an east-side line would not only put Doer and the NDP in an untenable position, it would demonstrate that McFadyen has the ability to lead.

McFadyen has staked his political future on this issue. Voters should take him at his word, and judge him sternly on the results three years from now.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca